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UK Government's £400 Billion AI Boost Figure Came From a Google-Commissioned Report, WIRED Reports

Bot Mutiny | November 5, 2026

The UK government's widely repeated claim that AI could add £400 billion to the British economy came from a report commissioned by Google, and the government's own estimate is less than a third of that figure, WIRED reports. AI minister Kanishka Narayan set out both figures in an answer to a parliamentary question, which WIRED describes as an admission. WIRED says the answer did not withdraw the £400 billion figure or say it had been wrong.

What the minister said

WIRED reports that for the last two years the UK government has told the public that AI could deliver a £400 billion boost, a figure WIRED describes as intended to calm fears of sweeping job losses and even an economic crash. Narayan, answering a parliamentary question, said that AI adoption and data investment could add £55 billion to £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion. He called even this "more recent assessment" a "hugely uncertain" estimate.

Narayan said the £400 billion figure "was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First," a British consultancy now referred to as PF Global, according to WIRED.

How long the figure stayed in use

WIRED reports that government departments and agencies used the £400 billion figure for almost two years, under two governments. Ministers have had the lower estimate since at least November 2025, almost a year before the admission, according to the outlet. It adds that Skills England, the government agency responsible for apprenticeships, was still publishing the old figure four months after November 2025. Former technology minister Peter Kyle also used the £400 billion figure while promoting the benefits of AI, WIRED reports.

WIRED says Narayan's parliamentary answer is the first recorded evidence it could find of the government setting the two numbers side by side, or saying the report was commissioned by Google.

What PF Global and Google said

Responding to WIRED's questions about the difference between the figures, PF Global's head of economics, Jonathan Dupont, said the disparity was partly because of what PF Global sees as the government's slow adoption of AI. "AI is a very fast moving technology, and, as we learn more, we inevitably have to update the assumptions lying behind our models," he said. "Compared to our older model, the numbers the government uses assume a much slower rate of adoption than looked possible back in our model that was created in 2023."

PF Global also told WIRED: "While we haven't changed our view on the overall potential of technology, given the slower rate of adoption we've seen in practice, our central estimate for the amount of potential likely to be achieved by 2030 is much closer to the Government's number," adding that growth would ramp up in the next few years after that. PF Global said its work for Google continued, but that all research was independent and all judgments and assumptions were its own.

WIRED says the Cabinet Office, the department responsible for AI in government, and Google were approached for comment. The article does not report a response from either.

Reaction from lawmakers and researchers

Dame Chi Onwurah, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, told WIRED that the government is right to promote the potential of technology like AI to improve public services, but that the reports on the two figures "highlight one of the central barriers to delivering the digital transformation of public services my committee has identified: hype." She said: "The government needs to be realistic about what technology like AI can deliver and be transparent with the public about potential savings."

Lord Holmes of Richmond, a Conservative peer who asked ministers about the origins of the £400 billion claim in January 2025 but did not receive a response, told WIRED: "It is unfortunate that the figure used repeatedly by the government, and then, unsurprisingly, by multiple other organizations has now been significantly and rightly adjusted. It would have been better for the government to clarify this much sooner and more directly."

Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute welcomed the revised estimates but told WIRED it was "concerning that they come after almost two years of ministers citing a figure from research that was paid for by Google." Deshmukh said the government "should test the numbers it is given before it builds policy on them, fund independent research, and measure whether promised gains are delivered."

What is and is not established

As reported by WIRED, Narayan's answer says the £400 billion figure "was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First," and that the government's central estimate is £120 billion, itself called "hugely uncertain." WIRED does not report any finding that the Google-commissioned research was biased, and PF Global says all its research was independent and all judgments and assumptions were its own. WIRED also does not report whether the government will withdraw or correct the £400 billion figure; it says only that the answer did not withdraw it or say it had been wrong.